Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

Synthetic Controls

	Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.85 (0.75, 1.04)
1	0.77 (0.67, 0.82)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.87)
3	0.78 (0.72, 0.87)
4	0.8 (0.68, 0.9)
5	0.81 (0.72, 0.91)
6	0.94 (0.78, 1.11)
7	0.99 (0.91, 1.42)
8	0.97 (0.84, 1.16)
9	0.75 (0.72, 0.92)

ITS

	ITS Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.86 (0.74, 1)
1	0.72 (0.61, 0.83)
2	0.77 (0.66, 0.9)
3	0.85 (0.78, 0.9)
4	0.8 (0.72, 0.85)
5	0.86 (0.79, 0.94)
6	0.98 (0.91, 1.05)
7	1.02 (0.88, 1.15)
8	0.99 (0.9, 1.09)
9	0.77 (0.67, 0.83)

STL+PCA

	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.85 (0.76, 1.05)
1	0.78 (0.71, 0.89)
2	0.77 (0.67, 0.85)
3	0.76 (0.71, 0.88)
4	0.76 (0.71, 0.85)
5	0.82 (0.75, 0.9)
6	0.84 (0.76, 0.93)
7	0.96 (0.87, 1.05)
8	0.98 (0.91, 1.07)
9	0.78 (0.72, 0.89)

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	ach_noj	0.4920292
1	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	0.9150696	K00_99	0.2693739
2	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	1.0000000	N39	0.3180010
3	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.6411125	L00_99	0.5736290
4	pandemic	1.0000000	P00_99	0.5550961	E00_99	0.5502998
5	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	1.0000000	I00_99	0.9374439
6	pandemic	1.0000000	L00_99	0.6209211	Z00_99	0.5467494
7	cJ20_J22	0.9999832	I60_64	0.9344976	P00_99	0.2246365
8	A41	0.9003578	I00_99	0.3034559	I60_64	0.2767511
9	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	A10_B99_nopneumo	0.1863200

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.85 (0.75, 1.04)	cJ20_J22	1	0.87 (0.7, 1.11)	E00_99	1	0.9 (0.69, 1.11)	M00_99	0.31	0.9 (0.73, 1.15)
1	0.77 (0.67, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.7, 0.85)	E40_46	0.92	0.76 (0.69, 0.88)	K00_99	0.27	0.76 (0.7, 0.97)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.87)	cJ20_J22	1	0.8 (0.72, 0.96)	E40_46	1	0.81 (0.72, 0.96)	N39	0.32	0.81 (0.68, 0.93)
3	0.78 (0.72, 0.87)	cJ20_J22	1	0.8 (0.73, 0.88)	K00_99	0.64	0.75 (0.69, 1.01)	L00_99	0.57	0.76 (0.71, 0.86)
4	0.8 (0.68, 0.9)	pandemic	1	0.76 (0.6, 0.89)	P00_99	0.56	0.7 (0.54, 0.81)	E00_99	0.55	0.74 (0.61, 0.83)
5	0.81 (0.72, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.64 (0.55, 0.84)	A41	1	0.76 (0.67, 0.88)	I00_99	0.94	0.75 (0.62, 0.92)
6	0.94 (0.78, 1.11)	pandemic	1	0.85 (0.71, 0.96)	L00_99	0.62	1.01 (0.64, 1.15)	Z00_99	0.55	0.97 (0.74, 1.11)
7	0.99 (0.91, 1.42)	cJ20_J22	1	1.14 (0.99, 1.39)	I60_64	0.93	0.92 (0.76, 1.49)	P00_99	0.22	0.9 (0.81, 1.43)
8	0.97 (0.84, 1.16)	A41	0.9	1.03 (0.91, 1.2)	I00_99	0.3	1.02 (0.89, 1.15)	I60_64	0.28	1 (0.88, 1.18)
9	0.75 (0.72, 0.92)	cJ20_J22	1	0.83 (0.7, 0.99)	E40_46	1	0.73 (0.65, 0.83)	A10_B99_nopneumo	0.19	0.8 (0.73, 0.93)

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